Deal autopsy: the Tacoma house that looked cheap at $120/sqft

A 4-bed Tacoma house listed at $404,444, or $120 per square foot on paper. County records, a deed chain, and a full cost model turned that into $163 per square foot and a loss of about $40,000 at asking price. Here is how the number fell apart, and the checklist that catches it.

• Listed$404,444
• MLS $/sqft$120
• County $/sqft$163
• Net at asking−$40k

6122 Fawcett Ave, Tacoma, WA 98408 hit the market on 2026-07-21: four bedrooms, three baths, a 768 sqft detached shop, and a description that said it only needed "flooring, paint, kitchen and bathrooms." The MLS showed 3,367 sqft, or $120 per square foot in a zip code where renovated houses had just closed near $550,000. We ran it the next day. It is now the public sample report on our site; every figure below comes from there.

Step 1: the square footage was 26% smaller than advertised

The county Building page showed 2,483 sqft finished above grade plus an 884 sqft unfinished basement. The listing had folded the basement into the total. On the area a buyer actually gets, the price was $163 per square foot, not $120. Every comp is priced on the same basis, so nothing else works until this number is fixed.

Step 2: one "sold" in the comp set was never a market price

The nearest look-alike, 706 S 58th St, showed three "sold" events on the portals. The first, $320,000 in 2023, was a foreclosure transfer; a builder rehabbed it before the $470,000 sale in February 2024. Anyone anchoring on $320,000 was anchoring on a bank clearing its books. The June 2026 sale at $549,999 is the real comp: nearly identical above-grade area, same 1.5-story type. With four more county-verified sales, the After-Repair Value (ARV) landed at $540,000, a little below the two $550,000 anchors because the high school rates 1/10 and 98408 has no $600,000 precedent.

Step 3: the full cost of the flip, not just purchase plus rehab

Purchase plus rehab is where most first-time flippers stop: $514,444 against a $540,000 ARV looks like a $25,000 win. Interest, one point, 6.5% selling costs, and six months of holding add another $66,000. The flip loses about $40,400 at asking price before the inspection finds anything.

Step 4: three price lines instead of one opinion

Instead of arguing whether the house is "worth it," the model outputs three reference lines: break-even at $366,000, a $30,000 net at $337,000, a $50,000 net at $318,000. The last is 79% of asking. The sellers had owned the house for 36 years, taxes paid, no lender pressure, and the listing allowed Conventional financing. The buyer pool was every family in Tacoma, not only investors, and a discount that deep had no reason to appear.

Step 5: stress test, 8 of 9 cells red

Rehab and ARV are the two numbers investors get wrong most often, so the model moves both: rehab $90,000 to $140,000, ARV $515,000 to $565,000. Eight of nine outcomes lose money; the ninth earns $3,600 for six months of work. A deal that only survives when everything goes right is not a deal.

What the autopsy says

Checklist: run this before you write a flip offer

1. Recompute $/sqft on the county's finished above-grade area.Basements, garages, and "bonus rooms" in the MLS total are the most common fake bargain.
2. Open the deed behind every "sold" in your comp set.Foreclosure, trustee, family, and partial-interest transfers are not market prices. Keep arm's-length sales, dated by the county.
3. Price the ARV below the anchors when the area has a ceiling.Weak schools, no sales above a band, and diminishing $/sqft on big houses all argue for a haircut.
4. Model every dollar, not just purchase plus rehab.Interest, points, selling costs, holding, miscellaneous. Here they added $66,000, more than the apparent margin.
5. Convert the answer into price lines.Break-even, thin margin, target profit. Compare them with what this seller can realistically accept.
6. Read the seller and the financing terms.Long-held, owner-occupied, Conventional-eligible listings attract the whole market. Investor discounts come from listings it cannot buy.
7. Stress the two soft numbers together.A 3×3 of rehab and ARV. If most cells are red at your price, the price is wrong.

The complete analysis, with a draggable calculator and links to every county record, is in the 6122 Fawcett Ave sample report. For the public-record habits behind steps 1 and 2, see 5 checks before you buy a flip.

Related reading

• Deal autopsy: 8205 S Bell St, Tacoma — the lot is worth more than the house
• Flipping houses in Tacoma, WA: county records, taxes, old houses, permits
• Your flip profit is set the day you buy, not the day you sell
• The seller's property tax exemption is not your tax bill
• 5 listing photo tricks, and how to check each one with public records

Sources

• Pierce County ATIP, APN 6690200750, Building tab — finished area 2,483 sqft above grade, 884 sqft unfinished basement; queried 2026-07-22.
• Pierce County ATIP, APN 6690200750, Sales tab — deed history and ownership of the subject; queried 2026-07-22.
• Pierce County ATIP, APN 6690000440, Sales tab (706 S 58th St) — 2023 foreclosure transfer, 2024-02 sale, 2026-06-22 arm's-length sale; queried 2026-07-22.
• Pierce County ATIP (parcel lookup) — excise records for the other comps, searched by address; queried 2026-07-22.
• Redfin listing, 6122 Fawcett Ave — listing price, MLS square footage and description as displayed; viewed 2026-07-22.
• Redfin listing, 706 S 58th St — portal sale history showing three "sold" events; viewed 2026-07-22.