Deal autopsy: 8205 S Bell St, Tacoma — the lot is worth more than the house
8205 S Bell St in Tacoma asked $289,000 for a 764 sqft, 2-bed 1942 house on a 7,150 sqft lot. After verifying the deed history, tiering the comps, and running full costs, the numbers show about a $41,000 loss at the asking price. The value is in the lot, not the house.
- Asking$289,000
- House764 sqft · 2/1 · 1942
- Lot7,150 sqft
- Condition"Complete renovation", as-is
Listed June 2026 by an investor-entity owner. Every figure below was checked against the listing and Pierce County records on 2026-07-18.
1. The "$121,125 sold" that never happened
Source: Pierce County Assessor deed history (excise record, 2020-01-31), checked 2026-07-18.
Portals show a 2020 sale at $121,125, which makes $289,000 look like a 139% markup on an unrenovated house. The county deed says otherwise: a bargain-and-sale deed for a partial interest, a share of title moving between related parties. Nobody paid a market price in 2020, so the "seller basis" you might negotiate against does not exist. The last open-market sale was 1984.
2. Thirty days, one cut
Listing history from the MLS feed, checked 2026-07-18.
A 3% cut after eleven days, then three more weeks of views and no contract. The market has voted on $289,000. That is context for an offer, not a valuation; the valuation comes from what renovated houses nearby sold for.
3. Same street, two price tiers
Seven closed sales, ZIP 98408, March–June 2026, 1–2 bedrooms. Prices from two portals, area from county records.
Same-street sales are Tier B and larger; they set the floor, not the target. Tier A sets the ceiling a full renovation can reach.
The two closest houses on S Bell sold at $377 and $410 per square foot, but both were bigger and neither was renovated. Finished flips two streets over cleared $453 to $483. Small houses price higher per square foot, and finished houses price higher than tired ones; both adjustments push the same way, so a renovated subject lands near $460 to $480. We set ARV at $360,000 and stress it $10,000 each way. The mechanics are in our guide on same street, two prices.
4. All-in cost, then three price lines
Investor reference lines, not offers. Costs: rehab $65,000 (about $85/sqft, full interior, 1942 house budgeted before inspection), selling costs 6.5% of ARV, holding $600/month for 6 months, $5,000 contingency, and hard-money financing at typical terms (most of the purchase plus the rehab financed at about 10% per year with a 1% origination fee).
At the asking price the all-in figure is roughly $401,000 against a $360,000 exit: about $41,000 short. Break-even is $249,000, and a $50,000 margin on a six-month project needs a purchase near $201,000, or 69% of ask. That is not a negotiating tactic; it is the arithmetic of a small house priced at $378 per square foot before any work.
5. Stress test: 7 of 9 cells lose
Even 10% below asking, only a no-surprises rehab and a base-or-better exit turn positive, and the upside tops out at $14,000.
We ran the grid at $260,000 to give the deal a fair chance. Seven of nine cells are red. The two green cells need a $50,000 rehab on a 1942 house, a number to confirm after a sewer scope and roof inspection, not before.
6. Verdict: the lot, not the house
At $289,000 this house loses about $41,000 as a flip. The 7,150 sqft lot is the real asset, but adding a bedroom and bath costs over $100,000 and lifts ARV only to about $420,000, still a loss at ask. The seller has already cut once; the right posture is patience. Re-run the numbers if the price approaches the break-even line.
Run this on your next fixer
- Open the deed behind every portal "sold". A partial-interest or family transfer is not a price.
- Read the price-cut history as market feedback, not as value.
- Sort comps into finished vs. not finished before averaging, and adjust for size: small houses price higher per square foot.
- Build the full cost stack (selling, holding, financing, contingency), then solve for the break-even and target-profit purchase prices.
- Stress rehab and ARV in a 3×3 grid. If most cells are red at a discount, the asking price is not the problem you can fix.
- Ask what the lot is worth under a different strategy before you pay for it under a flip.
This is how every PropDossier report is built: county record first, listing second, every number linked to its source.
Please read. This case study is for informational purposes only and reflects public records and listing data as of 2026-07-18. It is not an appraisal, inspection, brokerage service, or investment, legal, or tax advice. Figures are estimates; verify independently and consult licensed professionals before any real estate decision.
Related reading
Sources
- Pierce County ATIP, APN 6835000170, Sales tab (8205 S Bell St) — 1984 arm's-length sale and the 2020-01-31 bargain-and-sale deed for a partial interest; checked 2026-07-18.
- Pierce County ATIP (parcel lookup) — living area and deed type for the seven comps, searched by address; checked 2026-07-18.
- Northwest MLS (NWMLS) — listing history (list date, price cut, days on market) as shown on public portals fed by the MLS; checked 2026-07-18.
FAQ
Why is the $121,125 'sold' price on the portal not a real sale?
The county recorded that 2020 transfer as a bargain-and-sale deed for a partial interest, meaning a share of title changed hands between related parties. It was not an arm's-length sale, so it says nothing about market value or what the current owner really paid. The last open-market sale on record is from 1984.
Why not use the same-street comps at $377 to $410 per square foot directly?
Those houses are 927 to 960 square feet. Price per square foot rises as houses get smaller, because a kitchen, a bath, and a roof cost about the same whether the house is 764 or 960 square feet. Applying a big-house rate to a small house understates its value; applying a small-house rate to a big house overstates it. We adjust before we average.
Does the 7,150 sqft lot change the outcome?
Not for a flip. Adding a bedroom and bath to reach 3/2 would cost well over $100,000 and lift the after-repair value to roughly $420,000, which still loses money at the asking price. The lot matters for a long-hold or build strategy, not for a six-month renovation.
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Get a free sample analysisPublished 2026-08-26 · Updated 2026-08-26 · PropDossier Research