How to decide if a flip is worth buying: 5 steps on a real listing
To decide if a flip is worth buying, run five steps: pull the county square footage, set an after-repair value (ARV) from real comps, add up every cost, back out three price lines (breakeven, modest profit, target profit), and stress-test with a 3×3 grid. Below, all five on a real Tacoma listing.
- 1County record, not the listingAssessor page · 2 min
- 2ARV from real compsRecorded sales · 15 min
- 3Every cost, not just rehabSpreadsheet · 10 min
- 4Three price linesBack-solve · 5 min
- 53×3 stress gridNine scenarios · 5 min
The example: 8205 S Bell St, Tacoma, WA, a 2-bed, 1-bath house listed in June 2026 at $299,000, cut to $289,000, described by the seller as ready for a complete renovation and sold as-is. Everything below comes from the public listing and Pierce County records as of 2026-07-18.
1. Start from the county record, not the listingCounty assessor
Source: Pierce County Assessor parcel record and the public listing, checked 2026-07-18.
Open the county assessor page. Take finished square footage, year built, basement, lot size, and owner name from there. Divide the asking price by that number.
A house that needs a full rehab and asks more than about $300 per county square foot is priced like a finished product. This one asks $378.
2. Set ARV from real sales, and throw out the fake onesRecorded deeds
Six recorded sales within a few blocks, 2026-05 to 2026-06; the $483 anchor is a fully renovated 828 sq ft flip. Prices confirmed on two portals and the county record.
Pull 2-bed sales from the last 90 days within a few blocks. Use county square footage for each. Anchor the top with a finished flip, the bottom with a clean but unrenovated sale.
One portal showed this house "sold" for $121,125 in 2020. The deed is a partial-interest transfer (noted on the Washington excise affidavit), not a market sale. The last real sale was 1984. Never use it as the seller's cost basis.
3. Add up every cost, not just the rehabFull cost stack
Assumptions: hard-money purchase and rehab loans at about 10% annual interest plus 1 point, six months, $600 per month holding, $5,000 miscellaneous, 6.5% selling cost. Rehab $65,000 for a 764 sq ft full renovation.
List selling cost, rehab, loan interest and points, taxes, insurance, utilities, and a miscellaneous line. Subtract all of them from ARV. What is left is the ceiling on your purchase price.
Beginners subtract only the rehab. On this house the non-rehab costs are about $47,000, nearly as much as the renovation itself.
4. Back out three price linesBreakeven, modest, target
Investor reference lines only. The seller cut the price once ($299k to $289k) in the first 30 days; the lines tell you how far the price still has to travel.
Hold ARV and costs fixed, then solve the purchase price for profit = $0, $30,000, and your own target. Three numbers, written down before any conversation about price.
A single "max offer" invites rounding up in the heat of negotiation. Three lines show the distance between "not losing" and "worth six months of your life."
5. Stress-test with a 3×3 gridRehab × ARV
Net profit at a $260,000 purchase. Seven of nine cells are red; the two green ones need both a cheap rehab and a full-price sale.
Three rehab budgets (base, minus a big item, plus a big item) across three ARVs (pessimistic, base, optimistic). Count the red cells.
The best case here is $14,000 for six months and full construction risk. A cheaper rehab does not rescue this price; it only moves the target line from $201k to about $216k.
What the five steps produced. Not a yes or a no, but a set of numbers: $378 per county square foot for a gut rehab, ARV $360,000 backed by six real sales, about $112,000 of non-purchase costs, breakeven at $249,000, and a target that sits at 69% of asking. A price can move; the math waits for it. Our methodology runs the same five steps on every report.
Please read. This article is for informational purposes only. Figures are estimates from public records and a public listing as of 2026-07-18 and will change. It is not an appraisal, inspection, brokerage service, or investment, legal, or tax advice. Verify independently and consult licensed professionals before any real estate decision.
Related reading
Sources
- Pierce County Assessor-Treasurer parcel search (ATIP): parcel sales history, deed type, excise number, finished area, tax, checked 2026-07-18.
- Washington Department of Revenue, Real estate excise tax: what the excise affidavit is and when an exemption code is claimed, checked 2026-07-18.
FAQ
What is ARV and how do I estimate it?
ARV is the after-repair value: what the house should sell for once renovated. Estimate it from recent arm's-length sales of similar renovated homes nearby, priced per square foot on the county's finished area, not the listing's number. Then stress-test it with a lower and a higher figure.
Why use county square footage instead of the listing?
Listings may include unfinished basements, garages, or unpermitted additions in the total. The county assessor records finished living area separately. Comps are also recorded by the county, so using county numbers on both sides keeps price per square foot comparable.
Is a $50,000 profit target too high for a small flip?
It depends on your capital and risk tolerance. On a six-month project that ties up cash and carries construction risk, many investors set a floor between $30,000 and $50,000 or a minimum percentage of ARV. The point of the three price lines is to know what each target implies before you negotiate.
Does PropDossier tell me what to offer?
No. A PropDossier report organizes public records and listing data, shows the math, and links every figure to its source. It is not an appraisal, brokerage service, or investment advice. Your offer is your decision, ideally after an inspection.
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Get a free sample analysisPublished 2026-08-26 · Updated 2026-08-26 · PropDossier Research